Eurovision 2026 Betting Guide and Odds Analysis

The countdown has begun to the Eurovision Grand Final in Vienna, and the Eurovision betting odds are revealing the fierceness of this year’s competition. This article will give you the expert insight you need to create an airtight Eurovision betting strategy before the Grand Final on Saturday May 16, 2026.

Country	Song	Odds	Number of past wins by Country
Finland	Liekinheitin - Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen	13/8	1
Greece	Ferto - Akylas	5/1	1
Denmark	Før Vi Går Hjem - Søren Torpegaard Lund	6/1	3
France	Regarde ! - Monroe	7/1	5
Australia	Eclipse - Delta Goodrem	8/1	0
Israel	Michelle - Noam Bettan	12/1	4
Sweden	My System - Felicia	20/1	7
Italy	Per Sempre Si - Sal Da Vinci	33/1	3
Romania	Choke Me - Alexandra Căpitănescu	33/1	0
Ukraine	Ridnym - Leléka	40/1	3

Let's take a look at the three countries we think have the best chance of winning Eurovision 2026:

CasinoTops Online Tip: Finland

Liekinheitin by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen is a hot favourite to win this year’s competition, having received over 55% of the public vote in the Finnish national final in February.

The duo’s high octane combination of classical violins and rock elements delivers a sound which ought to capture plenty of attention on the continent, having already been a huge hit at home, and the track has taken a commanding early lead on Eurovision betting sites.

This restrained, emotive EDM-influenced track is performing well on Eurovision betting sites, partly thanks to Søren’s captivating stage presence resonating with fans on social media. The styling of the artist and backing dancers brings back memories of Italy’s winning 2021 entry Måneskin, while the European techno scene generally does well with fans.

France

As a member of Eurovision’s ‘big five’, France has traditionally struggled since the turn of the century, finishing in the top 10 on just seven occasions.

They did finish a fine second with a quintessentially French effort from Barbara Pravi in 2021 and 17-year-old Monroe’s Regarde ! has plenty of promise.

UK

LOOK MUM NO COMPUTER (Sam Battle) has enjoyed viral internet success thanks to his absurd musical inventions, including a Furby organ and a Game Boy synthesiser, which the Brits will be hoping can transfer to television screens.

The UK is rarely mentioned in Eurovision betting tips, and we’re ranked 200/1 outsiders to win this year at the time of writing. The song Eins, Zwei, Drei is rather marmite, though it’s performing well on social media. It’s wacky, but songs of that nature have done well in the past, such as Espresso Macchiato. Tommy Cash finished third for Estonia last year despite most Eurovision betting sites widely dismissing him, so hopefully Battle will outperform expectations too.

Bookmaker	Betting markets	Welcome offer
bet365	To Win Outright, To Win 1st Semi Final, To Win 2nd Semi Final, To Qualify, Top 10 Finish, Match-Ups, Jury Vote Winner, Origin of Winner, Televote Winner, Winning Margin, Winners Points Total	Bet £10 and get £30 in free bets
Betway	To Win Outright	Bet £10 and get £40 in free bets
talkSPORT BET	To Win Outright, Semi-Final Outrights, Lucky Dip	Get up to £30 in free bets
Highbet	To Win Outright, Top 5 Finish, Top 10 Finish, Top 15 Finish, Jury Vote Winner, Televote Winner, Top County (Areas), Winning Margin, Winners Points Total, Origin of Winner, Semi-Final Outrights	Bet £10 and get £30 in free bets

All of these platforms have easy-to-use interfaces and are completely legal in the UK. If you’re looking to bet on more niche markets, we’d recommend opting for Highbet or bet365. Some bookmakers release more betting options closer to the event, so keep an eye on the markets as Eurovision week approaches.

1. Pick a site from this article and click the link to be taken to the homepage.

2. Click ‘Join’ then enter your personal details. This will include your name, phone number, email address, nationality and date of birth. Press ‘Continue’.

3. Enter your full address.

4. Create a strong password, tailor your marketing preferences, then read and agree to the terms and conditions. Proceed to your account.

5. Navigate to the cashier page and make a deposit.

6. Enter ‘Eurovision’ in the search bar and select a betting market from the drop down box. Make your selection, decide how much money you’re betting, then finalise your bet.

Outright Winner

This is the most popular, accessible and widely-available style of Eurovision betting. I asked one of our top reviewers who they bet on to win outright last year. Here’s what they had to say:

Top 10 / Top 5 Finish

These markets offer a lower-risk option if you’re looking to bet on entries with a high jury appeal that are unlikely to perform well amongst televoters (or vice versa).

You likely won’t get great odds betting on countries like France and Denmark to make the top ten. Instead, identify songs you think could sneak into the top-five or top-ten with qualities that bookmakers might dismiss.

For example, the alternative, nu-metal Romanian entry currently sits at a 2.9% chance of winning (33-1), but its televote appeal will likely see it exceed expectations on the night.

Many lacked faith in Italy’s entry 12 months ago, Volevo Essere Un Duro by Lucio Corsi, since he was only entered after the originally-selected artist declined. Corsi was immediately put through to the final (since Italy is part of the big five), where he placed an impressive fifth.

One of our top reviewers placed a bet on Montenegro finishing in the top 10. Here’s why:

• United Kingdom

• France

• Germany

• Italy

• Spain*

The fact that the ‘big five’ skip the semi-finals generally puts them at a disadvantage (for all that they are now invited to perform across the two nights), with just two winners coming from these five countries since the turn of the century (Germany 2010 and Italy 2021).

*Spain has decided to withdraw from the competition this year due to geopolitical reasons, hence their absence from Eurovision betting sites and new ‘Big Four’ betting markets. Ireland, Slovenia, Iceland and the Netherlands are also absent from this year’s competition.

Expert Eurovision Betting Tips and Strategies

Eurovision is about as diverse as it gets on the musical front, which makes it particularly hard to compare the strength of each entry by the sound alone. This means you’re usually taking several factors into consideration.

When you’re comparing Romanian nu-metal with French pop opera, it's vital to look past the song and consider the context around it, as well as how well each song will translate to a big stage and onto the television cameras.

With Eurovision being decided by both public and jury votes, winning songs tend to need versatility to get to the top of the standings.

Historical Accuracy: Do the Bookies Always Get it Right?

Statistically speaking, the favourite around April/May tends to go on and win the competition, with five of the last seven favourites at this stage ultimately going on to lift the crown.

Acts predicted to win usually don’t place too far from the top spot, so the Eurovision 2026 betting odds are a reliable place to start.

However, it’s worth noting that Eurovision betting sites missed the mark last year. Sweden was the bookies’ favourite for most of the season, but their novelty effort ‘Bara bada bastu’ didn’t even make the top three.

The UK has a terrible record this century though they’re usually shorter than they should be in the betting due to the sheer volume of bets placed.

It’s been fairly slim pickings since Katrina and the Waves won the competition in 1998, though Jessica Garlick (third in 2002) and Jade Ewen (fifth in 2009) have shown alongside Ryder that the UK can still do well with the right entry. Let’s hope for similar luck this year.

Here’s a snapshot of how how accurate the bookies have been in recent years:

Year	Predicted winner (April)	Actual winner
2025 ❌	Sweden	Austria
2024 ✅	Switzerland	Switzerland
2023 ✅	Sweden	Sweden
2022 ✅	Ukraine	Ukraine
2021 ❌	Malta	Italy
2019 ✅	Netherlands	Netherlands
2018 ✅	Israel	Israel

The ‘Pre-Party’ Influence

In the build-up to Eurovision, artists fly out to multiple pre-parties to meet with fans, perform their contest entry and do interviews. If a pre-party performance suffers from a weak stage presence, it can decimate public confidence before the final.

Creative sets and camerawork (like we saw in Switzerland’s winning entry ‘The Code’ in 2024) can mobilise TV voters. Always wait for rehearsal clips to surface before placing large stakes. These can be found on the Eurovision website.

While the group didn’t have the global appeal they enjoyed in the years after Eurovision, Måneskin’s pre-existing fanbase in central Europe helped propel them to their 2021 victory. Meanwhile some entries, such as 2019’s Duncan Laurence, went on to become viral hits in the years after Eurovision.

Keep an eye on social media platforms to gauge the perception of artists in the weeks before the competition.

Who Will Win the Eurovision Song Contest 2026?

With plenty of the ingredients needed for a winning formula, we’re backing Finland to win the Eurovision Song Contest 2026. CasinoTopsOnline is confident in this decision, so we’re placing a bet and donating any winnings to a gambling charity.

Whichever betting market takes your fancy, make sure to stay up to date with news surrounding the competition. This is the key to interpreting bookmakers’ data and making smart picks as we approach the grand final on May 16.