Online gambling market forecast: Can it really hit $169B by 2030?

There are more than enough reasons for continued growth, and it’s certainly very unlikely that the industry will see regression anytime soon. Here are some of the main reasons for continued growth:

• Increasing internet penetration

• Increasing usage of smartphones

• Smartphones encourage convenient gambling and mobile app lottery games.

• Casino gambling is one of the fastest-growing markets due to convenience.

With heightened focus on responsible gambling, the aim is to encourage safer play at online casinos. However, with more stringent regulations across multiple markets, is there a chance the online gambling market fails to reach its forecasted levels for 2030?

What factors may hinder growth across the online gambling industry?

Despite it looking clear that the online gambling market will continue to grow over the next five years, some factors may potentially hinder the industry, such as:

• Regulatory and legal restrictions

• Rise of crypto and its volatility

• Continued public stigma

• Restrictions on brand advertising

We’ve taken a closer look at some of the key factors that could limit the growth of the online gambling market below.

Football shirt sponsorship

Gambling companies make up over 50% of the English Premier League’s shirt sponsors for the 2024/2025 season. However, from the 2026/2027 season on, Premier League clubs will no longer be able to have gambling companies sponsor the front of their shirts. This is a self-imposed ban set by the clubs.

As per GlobalData, the total value of shirt sponsorship deals for Premier League clubs and gambling companies for the 2024/25 season alone is $135.35 million.

Gambling companies are also the most prominent sponsors of the top professional football leagues in Belgium, Greece, Hungary, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, and Russia. They make up 15% of shirt sponsorships across the top divisions in Europe.

This widespread advertising of some of the most-watched professional sports leagues means there are millions of people being exposed to gambling adverts every week.

According to research, gambling adverts were displayed over 29,000 times in the UK throughout the first weekend of the current Premier League season alone. This figure is up almost 3x compared to last season.

How will the gambling sponsorship ban affect the online gambling market?

With less visibility, especially for a demographic dominated by young males (one that is a key audience for online gambling), it may slow down the growth of the gambling market.

Not only are rules expected to be tightened in the UK, but the rest of Europe is expected to follow suit. As a result, even less visibility could play a big role in the number of people gambling online.

Despite some gambling companies not even being open in the respective country they are advertising in, the presence of a gambling sponsorship alone can encourage people to start gambling.

Rise of crypto and its volatility

While crypto-focused operators are increasing their presence within the online gambling market, this has both positive and negative aspects.

It’s true that crypto can enhance user experience when playing at online casinos, for example, by providing greater anonymity, faster payouts, and fee-free transactions. However, its volatility is widely known to be one of its key downfalls.

Investing in cryptocurrencies has a significant risk as their value is incredibly volatile. The value of one Bitcoin over a one-year period from 2021 to 2022 saw highs of $70,000 and lows of $30,000. If you were to use crypto for online gambling, your deposits and winnings could quickly diminish in value.

This may limit the number of crypto users, especially in the online gambling industry, where players are still sceptical about using crypto as a payment method.

Potential regulatory restrictions in Brazil

Many operators and affiliates anticipated a lucrative Brazilian market to start the year due to legislative changes, which saw their newly regulated online betting market come into effect on the 1st of January, 2025. Within the first quarter of 2025, there were over 5 billion visits to online gambling platforms.

As of January 16th, a total of 66 operators for 137 brands were approved by the Secretaria de Prêmios e Apostas.

Despite the emergence of a booming market in the iGaming space, which in turn opens up more opportunities, issues with regulatory and operational processes may potentially limit growth in the future.

While stringent regulations surrounding responsible gambling are essential and will, in turn, promote a better market overall, they may have some negative short-term consequences.

How will stringent regulations in the Brazilian market limit growth?

Brazil is still trying to combat illegal operators appropriately, as well as ensuring that responsible gambling is up to scratch. This may halt the projected growth of the Brazilian online gambling market in the short term, with roadblocks slowing down development.

Operators must protect players. That’s why regulators are strict about compliance with responsible gambling tools, which help foster healthier gambling habits.

In the long run, this will help grow the online gambling market. This will aid trust and transparency between players, operators, and regulators. However, the short-term impacts of limiting the number of operators due to these stringent regulations may mean forecasted levels may not reach an overall $169 billion.

Even after the launch at the start of the year, 37 operators who applied for a licence from the SPA failed to meet compliance criteria. Despite being able to resubmit their documents, the strict regulations in place have already proven that it is not easy to launch in the market.

Final thoughts 

Due to the rise of gambling advertisements, there may be future issues regarding banning gambling ads across all markets, which could disturb the market. We have yet to see the impact of the ban on gambling ads across football shirts, but it could have a major impact on the market as a whole.

Cryptocurrency is still new to the industry, and while more and more crypto-focused operators are entering the market, its volatility could still be a challenge regarding overall industry growth. 

While stringent regulations surrounding responsible gambling will be positive in the long term, their short-term effects could slow down the projected industry growth, especially in new markets like Brazil.

This means that the nearly $70 billion in growth projections for the entire online gambling market over the next five years may not come to fruition, and it is not a foregone conclusion.