Real economic activity drops in US gaming: Should online gambling worry?

US commercial gaming revenue is hitting unprecedented levels. According to the AGA's State of the States revenue report, the commercial gaming industry accumulated $72 billion in revenue, a 7.5% year-on-year growth.

Commercial casino revenue increased 1% from 2023 to 2024, totalling $49.89 billion. Legal iGaming saw a substantial increase of 28.7%, up to $8.4 billion in revenue.

The growing trends are clear: retail revenues are falling in revenue growth, while sports betting and iGaming continue to grow exponentially. This signals the shift in consumer preferences, with players preferring to gamble online.

Nevertheless, the AGA has raised concerns about real growth within the gaming industry, particularly surrounding employment and weaker real wages.

What are the potential concerns?

While the iGaming industry continues to grow, so much so that by 2028, the Americas could overtake Europe in terms of online gambling revenue, there are still concerns within the AGA regarding the overall gaming industry.

This is because its Gaming Conditions Index (GCI) signalled a significant fall of 0.9% in real economic activity within the gaming industry. It measured gaming revenue, employment levels, employee wages and salaries, gaming executive sentiment, and proposal requests for activity at casino hotels.

This Q1 fall is the largest since the pandemic, primarily due to a drop in real wages, marginally negative sentiments from executives, and real below-average revenue growth.

The 0.9% fall is significant compared to the 0.7% growth in Q4 2024. GCI has also fallen in four consecutive quarters, with highs of 3.2% in Q2 2024.

Business executive troubles

A contributing factor has been the negative sentiment of business executives. Many are not optimistic about their business situations regarding revenue growth and customer activity, resulting in a -5.6% gaming executive sentiment in Q1 2025.

These issues are likely due to the US economy rather than negative outlooks within the gaming industry. They include tariffs, supply chain stress, and tighter financial market conditions.

How much will this impact the online gambling industry?

The online gambling industry in the US is forecasted to grow by 20.3% by 2028. However, this is not a foregone conclusion, as external factors could still impact it.

Nevertheless, forecasts remain positive. iGaming and online sports betting are prevalent across the US and show strong growth.

As stated by Bill Miller, CEO of the AGA:

“Propelled by another year of strong organic growth in existing online markets for sports betting and iGaming, the commercial casino sector enjoyed a third consecutive record year.”

“The unprecedented success of our industry comes as more Americans than ever before have access to, and allocate their entertainment budgets to, the legal, regulated gaming market,” he added.

Positive iGaming outlooks

According to the AGA, more than 50% of American adults in the US participated in some form of legal gambling activity in 2024.

“Americans increasingly see gaming in a positive light, recognising our commitment to operating responsibly and the economic benefits we bring to local communities. These positive views are the foundation of our industry’s credibility with the public, regulators, and lawmakers,” said Miller.